The United States is working to get back on track with COVID-19 vaccination efforts after winter storms across the country cancelled appointments and derailed vaccine deliveries.
The number of vaccines distributed across the country increased by about 17 million since last Monday, up from the usual 10 million increase we see week over week. When it comes to actually getting these vaccines into arms, though, the country is holding steady; as of March 1, about 79.5% of the doses delivered by the government have been administered, compared to 79% this time last week.
How Much Are Mass Vaccination Sites Helping?
To more efficiently vaccinate people in densely-populated areas, the government is converting stadiums, amusement parks, convention centers, and parking lots into mass vaccination sites—dozens of which will be run by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Pentagon. These tightly-operated, large-scale vaccination sites are designed to help administer shots to large swaths of people quickly; in Los Angeles, California, the first FEMA-run clinic is now vaccinating 6,000 people perday. It opened on February 16.
Over the past week, Texas opened three such vaccination sites in Houston, Dallas, and Arlington. New York City launched two centers in Brooklyn and Queens. Each site should be able to vaccinate 3,000 people per day, except for Houston, which has the capacity for 6,00 shots per day.
But so far, this strategy does not seem to be moving the needle at a state level. While we expected California, Texas, and New York to have shown significant improvement from last week in light of these new vaccination centers, none of these states have moved up on the list of states and territories ranked by the amount of fully-vaccinated people.
Are Local Pharmacies the Answer?
While we’ll probably see the impact of mass vaccination sites increase over time (FEMA-backed sites are coming to Pennsylvania and Florida in the next few days), their failure to make an initial splash highlights the importance of more localized vaccination efforts in places where there is no central hub.
It bears repeating that West Virginia—who paved the way for setting up distribution channels with local pharmacies—has remained a national leader in COVID-19 vaccinations. West Virginia was the first state to opt out of a federal pharmacy partnership in favor of relying on more independent pharmacies for vaccine distribution. According to Gov. Jim Justice, 40% of the state’s pharmacies are not chain-affiliated.
Currently, independent pharmacies are struggling to get COVID-19 vaccine doses from the government at the same rate as chains, who’ve more heavily benefited from the February 11 launch of a federal retail pharmacy program. Regardless of whether a pharmacy is a chain like CVS or Walgreens or independently owned, the goal is the same: to encourage vaccination by making it easy for people. People are already going to their local pharmacy; they’re not regularly going to their local NFL stadium.
According to the National Community Pharmacists Association (NCPA), there are several reasons why independent pharmacies are in a unique position to facilitate COVID-19 vaccination, if only they had the doses:
They are ingrained in the communities they serve—people trust themMore than half of independent pharmacies are located in poor areas underserved by public health programs and lacking other healthcare providers More than half of independent pharmacies are located in areas where lack transportation is an issue and people may not have cars to get to other vaccination sites
States With Fewer People Are Vaccinating People Faster
Unsurprisingly, states with lower population densities are working their way through their vaccine-eligible groups the fastest. Seven states have administered both vaccine doses to over 15% of their eligible populations:
AlaskaHawaiiNorth DakotaNew Mexico South DakotaVermontWyoming
Notably, these are not the states who are introducing FEMA-run mass vaccination sites.
Vaccine eligibility requirements are up to the individual states. But most are using the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines as a reference point. This week, we expanded our eligibility tracker to encompass all of “Phase 1,” as defined by ACIP, because many states are well into their versions of Phase 1c. Previously, we were only tracking how quickly states moved through their populations of healthcare workers, long-term care facility residents, and older adults.
A Waiting Game
While we’re on the brink of COVID-19 vaccine breakthroughs, the U.S. is in a holding pattern. We’re waiting for the weekly increase in the vaccine allotments from the Biden administration to actually be administered; we’re waiting on the hundreds of millions more doses secured by the President to be manufactured by July; we’re waiting for the recently-authorized Johnson & Johnson vaccine to start being used.
Knowing all those balls are in the air, projections for when each state will vaccinate a meaningful amount of their populations are likely (and hopefully) quite conservative. If nothing changed from this point on, the U.S. would vaccinate 70% of its adult population by September.
Data by Amanda Morelli/Adrian Nesta
Herd immunity is a complex calculation that relies on both past infections and number of people vaccinated. Because the World Health Organization emphasizes herd immunity should rely on vaccination and not disease exposure, for the sake of projections, our numbers focus on the time it will take to hit 70% through vaccination alone.
